2022 Market Outlook & 2021 Year in Review

Executive Summary

The 2022 Market Outlook

Demand for ownership housing will remain strong in 2022.   TTREB is forecasting:

  • Total home sales reported through TRREB's 
    MLS® System in the GTA will reach 110,000, representing a dip from 2021, but still a strong result in comparison to previous years; and

  • The average selling price for all home types combined is set to climb to $1,225,000 an approximate increase of 12 per cent when compared to last year.


Key finding from the latest buying and selling intentions include:

  • The number of prospective buyers for 2022 has dipped relative to previous years, including overall first-time buyers; and

  • The number of current homeowners who are very likely to list their home for sale in 2022 was also down.

 

Average Price.jpeg

The Rental Market Outlook

Last year, the rental market reached a record high of 55,000 transactions after the pandemic-induced downturn.  In 2022, we can expect:

  • Competition to grow stronger as a result of immigration and continued job creation;

  • Supply to remain tight; and

  • Average recents to recover to the pre-pandemic high or beyond

Total home sales reported through TRREB's 
MLS® System in the GTA will reach 110,000, representing a dip from 2021, but still a strong result in comparison to previous years; and

  • The average selling price for all home types combined is set to climb to $1,225,000 an approximate increase of 12 per cent when compared to last year.


Key finding from the latest buying and selling intentions include:

  • The number of prospective buyers for 2022 has dipped relative to previous years, including overall first-time buyers; and

  • The number of current homeowners who are very likely to list their home for sale in 2022 was also down.

Full report here

GTA REALTORS® RELEASE APRIL STATS

 

TORONTO, ONTARIO, MAY 4, 2022 – The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market continued its adjustment to higher borrowing costs, with the number of transactions down on a monthly and annual basis. As has been the case with previous rate tightening cycles, some home buyers have moved to the sidelines to determine how they will reposition themselves in the marketplace given the higher rate environment and related impact on affordability.

 

“Based on the trends observed in the April housing market, it certainly appears that the Bank of Canada is achieving its goal of slowing consumer spending as it fights high inflation. Negotiated mortgage rates rose sharply over the past four weeks, prompting some buyers to delay their purchase. Moving forward, it will be interesting to see the balance the Bank of Canada strikes between combatting inflation versus stunting economic growth and related government revenues as we continue to recover from and pay for pandemic-related programs,” said TRREB President Kevin Crigger.

 

GTA REALTORS® reported 8,008 homes sold through TRREB’s MLS® System in April 2022 – a 41.2 per cent decrease compared to April 2021 and a 27 per cent decrease compared to March 2022. On a year-over-year basis, the decline in sales was greater in the ‘905’ area code regions surrounding Toronto, particularly for detached houses.

 

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark was up by 30.6 per cent year-over-year in April 2022. The benchmark level in April was down in comparison to the March level. The average selling price, at $1,254,436, was up by 15 per cent compared to April 2021, but down compared to the average selling price of $1,300,082 in March 2022.

 

“Despite slower sales, market conditions remained tight enough to support higher selling prices compared to last year. However, in line with TRREB’s forecast, there is evidence of buyers responding to increased choice in the marketplace, with the average and benchmark prices dipping month-over-month. It is anticipated that there will be enough competition between buyers to support continued price growth relative to 2021, but the annual pace of growth will moderate in the coming months,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

 

CONDO SALES REACHED AN ALL-TIME HIGH

THE AVERAGE PRICE OF CONDOS INCREASED WHILE NEW CONDO LISTINGS REMAINED FLAT IN GTA

 

TORONTO, ONTARIO, April 21, 2022 – Condominium apartment sales remained strong historically in Q1 2022. Seller’s market conditions remained in place with the average selling price increasing by more than 20 per cent year-over-year.

 

Greater Toronto Area (GTA) REALTORS® reported 7,932 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in Q1 2022 – a decrease of 15.6 per cent compared to the record Q1 2021 result of 9,399 sales.

 

“Condominium apartments represent a key market segment in the GTA, providing housing for an array of households. Many first-time buyers see condos as an affordable entry point into homeownership. At the other end of the spectrum, condos provide a luxury alternative for many households. It is also important to note that investor-owned condominium apartments have been an important source of rental supply over the past decade,” said TRREB President Kevin Crigger.

 

While first quarter sales were down year-over-year, new listings of condominium apartments were basically flat, meaning condo buyers had some relief in terms of market conditions. However, market conditions remained tight enough to support double-digit annual average price gains, with the average condominium apartment selling price increasing by 22.5 per cent to $790,398.

 

“The GTA population will grow at or near record levels over the next few years, supported by a strong regional economy. The condominium apartment segment will be an important source of housing, both for people looking to purchase a home and also those looking to rent. This will continue to support price growth, but the pace of price appreciation may moderate as the market becomes more balanced over the next year,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer

THE COST TO RENT RISES WHILE RENTAL LISTINGS FALL IN GTA

TORONTO, ONTARIO, April 21, 2022 – Tight rental market conditions continued in the first quarter of 2022, pushing average rents closer to the pre-pandemic peak. Rental transactions were down year-over- year in the first quarter, largely due to the fact that rental listings dropped by an even greater annual rate. The result was increased competition between renters and double-digit rent increases.

Greater Toronto Area (GTA) REALTORS® reported 10,110 condominium apartment rentals through TRREB’s MLS® System in Q1 2022 – down by 23.2 per cent compared to Q1 2021. However, rental transactions as a share of listings was up on a year-over-year basis, suggesting that demand remained strong while the supply of available units dipped.

“Immigration will be at or near record levels over the next two years. The number of non-permanent residents, including students, will also increase. Many of them will turn, at least initially, to the rental market. Investor-owned condominium apartments will be a key source of rental supply in the region. It is clear that rental demand is increasing relative to available units. While the homeownership market often dominates the headlines, policymakers also need to be cognizant about the need for rental housing supply as we move forward,” said TRREB President Kevin Crigger.

The average one-bedroom condominium apartment rent increased by 17.8 per cent to $2,145 in Q1 2022, from $1,820 in Q1 2021. The average two-bedroom rent was $2,867 in Q1 2022 – up by 17.2 per cent year-over-year compared to the average of $2,446 in Q1 2021. For perspective, the pre-pandemic peak in average rents was in Q3 2019, with the average one-bedroom rent at $2,262 and the average two-bedroom rent at $2,941.

“Over the past year, we have seen an upward trend in average condominium apartment rents. This rebound in the rental market took hold as population growth accelerated throughout last year. Demand for rental accommodation is expected to remain strong this year and beyond, as job growth continues, immigration and non-permanent migration continues to support housing demand, and higher borrowing costs see some young people put their decision to purchase a home on hold,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

Real Estate Community-LLPS.png

This is focus on the west side of Toronto and includes the neighbourhoods or Roncesvalles, South Parkdale, Dovercourt-Wallace Emerson Junction, High Park, Junction, Lambton Baby Point, Runnymede-Bloor West Village, Caledonia-Fairbank, Coro Italia-Daveport, Keelesdale-Eglinton West, Rockcliffe-Smythe, Weston-Pellam Park, Beechborough-Greenbrook, Briar Hill-Belgravia, Brookhaven-Amesbuy, Humberlea-Pelmo Park, Maple Leaf, Mount Dennis, Rustic, Weston, Yorkdale- Glen Park, Black Creek, Downsview-Roding-CFB, GlenfieldJane Heights, Humber Summit, Humberlea-Pelmo Park, Humbermede, York University Heights, Alderwood, Long Branch, Mimico, New Toronto, Stonegate-Queensway, Edenbridge-Humber Valley, Eringate-Centennial-West Deane, Etobicoke West Mall, Islington City Centre West, Kingsway South, Markland Wood, Princess- Rosethorn, Humber Heights, Kingsview Village - The Westway, Willowridge-Martingrove-Richview, Elms-Old Rexdale, Mount Olive-Silverstone:Jamestown, Rexdale-Kipling, Thistletown-Beaumonde Heights, West Humber-Clairville,
 

Find monthly reports here for Toronto West

1ab107_d6c499c09279443ab1c9218dbc0535d1~mv2.png